Mortgage rates have recently been seeing higher upticks, indicating a steady economic recovery. Last week (from 15 to 21 February), the rates took the biggest leap in more than a year. According to Bankrate data, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached 3.04% on 22 February, which was 2.8% on 10 February.

Mortgage rates are still near record lows, but the continuous growth could trigger some trends that may not be positive for the housing market, especially for the consumers.

The receding curve of COVID-19 infection, recovering economy, unemployment reduction, and the government’s monetary stimulus packages have encouraged the buyers to return to the housing market. Additionally, cheap mortgages and possible inflation predictions have fueled the demand, creating an imbalance in supply and demand.

The interest rates are unlikely to take a U-turn pretty soon, and experts don’t expect skyrocketing figures either. In truth, rates are still relatively low, as the 30-year rate was nearly 5% even a decade ago. Yet, what could be the impacts of the steady rising rates?

Treasury Yields Could Increase Even More

After bottoming at 50 basis points, the 10-year Treasury yield has been growing since August 2020. On February Friday, it was 1.35%, which has a high chance of growing even more and reaching 1.5%. 

However, the yield won’t increase rapidly unless inflation breaks out or the Fed tightens the policy. Even if inflation happens, it is unlikely to go out of control. Any policy change is not on the horizon, too, since James Bullard, the St. Louis Fed President, dismissed this possibility.

Refinancing Applications Drop

The increasing mortgage rate has caused a decrease in refinancing applications, which is understandable because a home loan refinance directly relates to the ups and downs in the weekly mortgage rates.

The good news is that even with a slight downward curve, the refinancing rate is still much higher in the year-to-year index. It fell just 5% from the previous week, but the rating is still 51% higher than the same period in 2020.

The gap is minimal if you consider the total refinancing applications. It decreased just 0.9% from the previous week’s 70.2%.

Buying Trend Will Continue

Interest rates creeping up have curbed the refinancing trend slightly, but rates are still low enough for buyers to apply for a mortgage. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors, the housing market is hot as the year-to-year home buying rate in January 2021 jumped 24%.

The data indicates a booming buying trend all across the country. The demand is much higher than the number of homes in the market. Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s head of global macro strategy, Jim Caron, thinks that the buying trend will take a huge leap in the coming months.

The new stimulus package will grant individuals a $1,400 stimulus check (the previous one was $600), which will give people more buying power. Caron reckons that a considerable portion of that money will go into the housing market.

Sources: Marketplace, CNBC & Financial times

Even against the backdrop of a global pandemic, the U.S. real estate market continues to grow faster than the wildest expectations.  Several factors, including the lowest mortgage rates in history, positive buying intent, and reduction of the unemployment rate, have pushed the home prices to the point that surpasses the 2005 index.

The latest quarterly report (fourth quarter of 2020) of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows a record jump in home prices. Single-family home’s median price took the biggest leap, soaring 14.9% to $315,000 in that period. The housing market has not experienced such a rise since 1990.

What does this record price boost tell us? Does this affect a large number of buyers who have survived the pandemic recession? Will this lead to inflation?

Analysis of the Ascending Home Prices

People are moving to suburbs: The flexible work policies amid the COVID-19 breakout and low mortgage rates have allowed thousands of people to leave expensive cities like San Jose, Brooklyn, and New York City. Those people have relocated to less expensive suburbs; a 20.7% price gain in the Northeast supports this trend. The West, Midwest, and South followed with 15.5%, 15.1%, and 14% gain, respectively.

The NAR data shows an increase in prices in every single metro area in the year-to-year index. Also, only 115 metros had a double-digit rise in the third quarter, but it increased to 161 metros in the fourth quarter.

The price hike will discourage the actual homebuyers:Record low mortgage rates have lured many new home buyers to enter the market. However, this trend is unlikely to last long. The NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun thinks so. He predicts that the buying power of potential buyers is going to get hit hard by the soaring prices across the country.

Low rates have increased the demand for new homes, which in turn drives up the price. There is also a low inventory that further skyrockets the prices. Despite an improvement in the employment market, most families are still recovering from the pandemic-related economic woes. So, a large position of these households won’t keep up with the growing numbers since the home prices are spiraling out of their financial ability. The current situation may scare off plenty of actual homebuyers.

A possibility of inflation:The Biden Administration has planned to help the hard-hit households with a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package. Some experts apprehend that such a big financial aid will lead consumers to splurge, which may trigger inflation.

 Also, if people start spending that stimulus money, the cost of living will increase, driving up the growing home prices even more. Runaway inflation seems quite likely, which shot the 30-year mortgage rates to around 18% in the late 1970s.

 However, things may not turn so bleak as it sounds. The chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has dismissed the possibility of sustained or massive inflation. The Economists at Oxford Economics also share the same thought, saying that the inflation outbreak is unlikely to reach 3%.

Sources: Marketwatch & Markets Insider

We are all using more technology: Seesaw, Zoom, Hangouts, Slack, Teams, more Amazon, more Netflix, more online classes, etc. We had to learn to support our children during online classes and create areas in our home for conference calls. 

What is interesting about this is that we have seen a very significant shift in how people think about their living space. The old model was “Office was for Work” and “Home was for Family.” This is clearly not the case anymore, and the lines between where we work are no longer visible – even the more senior professionals work at Starbucks, WeWork, and now finally at home.

We have seen a clear shift up in consumption patterns for renters and buyers. In Singapore, where we are based, it’s very difficult to find larger units to rent for professional families. Google, Microsoft, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Capital One, Zillow, Slack, Amazon, PayPal, Salesforce, and other significant companies require staff to work from home.

The requirements are more bedrooms, bigger spaces, quiet areas, etc. Another interesting outcome is that since families are spending more time at home (not traveling), they can invest more, rent or buy larger homes, better vacation homes, etc.

This is being echoed at GMG, where our mortgage demand sees very clear patterns of increased demand and pricing:

Over the past 12 months, we have funded: 5 loans in Aspen, 1 loan in Montana, 23 loans in Florida, and 9 in Austin alone!

Let our team of U.S. mortgage specialists discuss how you can secure a mortgage while living overseas, without any U.S. income, U.S. credit. We only work with Overseas Expat and Foreign Nationals, so we know precisely the solutions required to meet your mortgage needs.

Who we are

Global Mortgage Group, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, America Mortgages Inc. is a mortgage broker focusing only on U.S. Expats and Foreign Nationals living overseas. We offer over 150 U.S. bank and lender programs direct to our international clients.

Global Mortgage Group Pte. Ltd. is a leading international mortgage specialist. Based in Singapore with offices and partnerships across the globe, we connect our international clients to our network of lenders around the world. GMG offers financing solutions in the U.S., U.K., France, Canada, Australia, Thailand, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

After the nightmarish 2020 year, the country’s overall economy is slowly recovering, and the housing market seems to be at the forefront of that recovery. After the uptick in mortgage applications and continued lower interest rates, the beginning of 2021 has brought more positive trends, including a small leap in the Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI).

Fannie Mae’s composite index showed 77.7 points in the HPSI for January; a clear 3.7 points rise from December 2020. Of course, it’s nothing close to the pre-pandemic indicators since the HPSI still needed 15.3 points to catch up year over year rating.

What does this upward trend mean for buyers, sellers, and the overall housing market? Will this positive sign remain constant for the rest of the year?

A Breakdown of the Market Sentiment

According to the Fannie Mae index, a 16% surge in the section of "Selling Conditions" means that a significant number of buyers consider the current month a good time to sell. This newfound confidence is matched with a 5% rise in household income and 2% more consumers reckoning it to be a good time to buy.  

Fannie Mae’s Chief Economist, Doug Duncan, stated that the lower-income and renter groups played the catalyst in reversing December’s decline last year. It could mean that these groups are the direct beneficiaries of the household income surge and have put their trust in recent government stimulus packages and fiscal policies.

Similar trends are supported by CoreLogic’s recent monthly report of Loan Performance Insights for November 2020. It shows the highest drop in mortgage delinquencies since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the end of November, only 6% of all mortgages were in delinquency, and the rate had been declining since August last year. This downturn will directly influence the number of distressed sales, which is suitable for the market.

The CoreLogic report also shows a sharp decline in the unemployment rate, which was 14.8% in April but dropped to 6.7% at the end of the year. Both these factors indicate financial growth and stability for millions of families.

Some government-funded initiatives also have helped in changing the dynamics. Struggling mortgagors were able to take advantage of some programs that allowed them to delay the monthly installments in three-month increments. Along with the decreasing unemployment rate, many homeowners have found their footing and started making payments again.

All of these trends are positive for the housing market. Both the Fannie Mae index and CoreLogic report portray a condition favorable for both sellers and buyers. Stable household incomes and low mortgage rates have encouraged buyers to make a move in the market. Similarly, high home prices, low housing inventory, and people’s growing interest in buying have worked in favor of the sellers. 

Many undecided consumers are waiting for the success of the coronavirus vaccination program and the new fiscal policies. However, the current trends foretell a recovering economy and a healthy housing market.

Sources: fanniemae.com & corelogic.com