Global Property Investor – U.S. House Prices Forecast to Rise Over 4% in 2024

USA

Goldman Sachs predicts U.S. home prices will rise by over 4% in 2024, driven by falling mortgage rates and steady demand. Strong price growth is expected in areas like the Midwest, Northeast (New York, Boston), and parts of California (especially San Diego and San Jose). However, regions like Florida, hit hard by affordability issues and rising insurance costs, are expected to perform worse.

Source: U.S. House Prices Are Forecast to Rise More Than 4 Percent Next Year

U.K.

The U.K. housing market showed signs of bouncing back in August 2024, thanks in large part to a drop in Bank of England interest rates. A RICS survey highlighted that increased demand from buyers is pushing prices upward. Although conditions vary across regions, the overall trend is one of recovery.

Source: U.K. Housing Market Recovered Further in August

Canada

Canada’s housing market is likely to pick up in 2024 thanks to recent interest rate cuts. While the market has cooled, particularly in places like Toronto’s condo scene, prices aren’t expected to rise much in the near term. These rate cuts might make it easier for first-time buyers to enter the market, though affordability will still be tough for many. We may see more competition as borrowing becomes cheaper, but long-term price trends remain unclear, especially with different dynamics in various regions.

Source: Fall housing market could be ripe for 1st-time buyers. Here’s why

Australia

More than a quarter of Australian suburbs, particularly in major cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, have seen property values decline. This trend is largely due to interest rate hikes, which have curbed buyer demand, especially in middle and outer-ring suburbs where affordability is more impacted. Despite strong population growth, the market has cooled, with key suburban areas experiencing price drops, while inner-city areas remain more resilient but still affected.

Source: More Than a Quarter of Australian Suburbs See Value Drop 

Dubai

When considering renting or buying property in Dubai, it's essential to factor in lifestyle needs, market trends, and property types. The choice between apartments and villas, the benefits of off-plan properties, and a careful comparison of prices and amenities are critical to making the right investment. Proper inspections and financial planning are also important.

Source: What to know before renting or buying in Dubai

Singapore

Singapore’s real estate market remains strong, with record-breaking transactions reflecting investor confidence. The sale of an office building on Orchard Road for US$24 million in September 2024 highlights rising interest, particularly in the commercial sector. This sale signals robust foreign and domestic investment interest despite cooling measures introduced in the residential sector.

Source: Singapore’s Record-Setting US$24 Million Office Sale on Orchard Road Signals Investor Interest

Portugal

The Algarve region of Portugal is seeing a surge in demand from wealthy American buyers, driving up property prices. This trend is spurred by Portugal's attractive golden visa program, mild climate, and lifestyle appeal, making it a top destination for foreign investment in luxury homes.

Source: Portugal’s Algarve Housing Market Sees Surge in Wealthy American Buyers

www.gmg.asia

Taxes weaken markets in September + Short EURO / Long U.S. real estate? 

Long U.S. real estate - International Bridge Loans

Expect Market Weakness in September

On September 16th, the U.S. corporate tax deadline hits, along with non-withheld personal taxes due mid-September. September is typically a seasonally weak month in the markets, and with potential tax-related liquidity drains of up to $500M, we can expect some market weakness this month. It is prudent to think long-term during this period and look for value when you see it.

Meanwhile - we can expect a Fed rate cut in September. I personally hope that we see a 75 bps cut; it's clear that the Fed has been slow to react.

Forward indicators have rates declining up to 200bps in 2025!

I like to use www.truflation.com for a real inflation guide. According to their data, inflation is currently under control - whether this sticks, we will have to see.

Is the Euro the next carry-trade?

I participated in a fascinating webinar with Vincent Veluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at Stone-X, arguing the Euro could be the next carry trade. I have to agree with Vincent on the long-term weakness of the Euro. I just checked and the current borrowing rate in Euro is about 3%.

[Insight] Currently, gross rental yields in many sun-belt and midwest U.S. states are well over 10% per annum. Borrowing Euro at 3% and earning over 10% in USD is an appealing and prudent "carry trade" I am happy to discuss property options that meet these criteria.

New Listings

Newly-constructed multi-family unit in Los Angeles with a 6.8% cap rate!

4 Units x 5 bedrooms + 5 bathrooms + attached garage (total 20 bedrooms!). Approximate Lot Size: 7,499 sq. ft. Year Built: 2024

The property will be delivered with a 5-year master lease with government-assisted transitional housing organization.

Located just 0.2 miles from the University of Southern California's Health Sciences Campus and offers easy commutes to Downtown Los Angeles, Mid-City, and the Westside.

The 2024 construction ensures no deferred maintenance and strong in-place income. The property will be delivered fully occupied through 2024-2029, providing investors with immediate stabilized cash flow greater than 6.8% cap rate on current income.

Projected Monthly Rent: Y1 $23,000; Y2 $23,690; Y3 $24,400; Y4 $25,132; Y5 $25,886

Contact me directly for pricing and financing options.

Hotel101 Investment Opportunity

Hotel101 offers a unique opportunity to invest in 'hotel' rooms as freehold condo titles, along with a share of the gross room revenues—without any expenses or operational and maintenance responsibilities. Positioned as a 3-star hotel with 5-star amenities, they are located in top destinations like Niseko and Madrid. Plus, owners enjoy free nights each year at the hotels!

Watch our recent webinar with Hotel101 to learn more, or contact us here!

www.gmg.asia

Global Property Investor – U.K. House Prices Increased by 4.3% in August

Global Property Investor - Global Mortgage Group

USA

The latest report from ResiClub Analytics uses Zillow’s Market Heat Index to identify U.S. housing markets where buyers or sellers hold the most leverage. A higher score indicates a market favoring sellers, while a lower score favors buyers. Markets where inventory remains tight, and home price growth is elevated, give sellers more power. Meanwhile, areas with increased inventory and softer price growth give buyers the upper hand.

Source: This interactive housing market map shows where sellers—or buyers—have the most power right now

U.K.

U.K. house prices increased by 4.3% in August, the largest annual gain since November 2022, according to Halifax. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.3% from July, marking the second consecutive monthly increase. This growth is attributed to renewed market activity following a reduction in the Bank of England’s interest rates. While other market indicators show mixed results, with Nationwide reporting a small drop in prices, the overall trend points to a steady recovery in the housing market.

Source: U.K. house prices post biggest annual gain since late 2022

Canada

Canada’s housing market is shifting towards a healthier balance as rising interest rates slow down the red-hot market seen in recent years. The outlook suggests stabilizing prices and more manageable competition for buyers, with an increased focus on long-term sustainability in the real estate sector.

Source: Canada Housing Market Outlook: A Shift Toward Healthier Territory

Australia

Australian home prices are projected to rise over 6% in 2024, driven by a persistent housing shortage and strong population growth. Despite the highest interest rates in 13 years, the housing market remains resilient, with significant gains seen in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane.

Source: Australian Property Market: Values Rise By .5%

Dubai

Dubai’s real estate market saw a remarkable 40.8% year-on-year increase in property sales value in August, totaling AED47.3 billion ($12.88 billion). Apartment sales rose 37.6%, reaching 12,268 transactions valued at AED23.5 billion, while villa sales increased by 4.6% annually. August was the second-best month for sales value this year, following July’s strong performance. Land sales also surged, with 1,396 plots sold for AED15.1 billion, a 153.8% month-on-month increase.

Source: Dubai’s Real Estate Market Sees 40.8 Percent Rise in Sales Value to $13 Billion in August

Singapore

The Singapore property market is seeing a rise in foreign interest, especially in the luxury home sector. In Q2 2023, there was a notable increase in foreign buying, signaling a thawing of the market after recent cooling measures.

Source: Rise in Foreign Buying of Luxury Homes in Singapore in Q2

America Mortgages Weekly

6.8% cap rate multi-unit LA + Don’t wait for interest rates to drop before reading this!

With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates soon, U.S. expats and foreign national investors have a unique chance to invest before property prices rise. Lower rates typically increase buyer competition and property values, so acting now could secure you a great deal.

For more insights, visit: America Mortgages

6.8% cap rate in LA! + Hotel 101 + U.S. Mortgage Rates + Turning home equity into cash

GMG | Investor

[Super rare] Newly-constructed multi-family unit in Los Angeles with a 6.8% cap rate!

4 Units x 5 bedrooms + 5 bathrooms + attached garage (total 20 bedrooms!). Approximate Lot Size: 7,499 sq. ft. Year Built: 2024

The property will be delivered with a 5-year master lease with government-assisted transitional housing organization.

Located just 0.2 miles from the University of Southern California's Health Sciences Campus and offers easy commutes to Downtown Los Angeles, Mid-City, and the Westside.

The 2024 construction ensures no deferred maintenance and strong in-place income. The property will be delivered fully occupied through 2024-2029, providing investors with immediate stabilized cash flow greater than 6.8% cap rate on current income.

Projected Monthly Rent: Y1 $23,000; Y2 $23,690; Y3 $24,400; Y4 $25,132; Y5 $25,886

Contact me directly for detailed pricing and tailored financing options.

Hotel101

Last week, I hosted a webinar with Hotel101, a company offering the opportunity to invest in 'hotel' rooms  in the form of freehold condo titles and a share of the gross room revenues, with NO expenses or operational and maintenance responsibilities.

They are positioned as a 3-star hotel with 5-star amenities in super popular locations such as Niseko and Madrid. Owners also get free nights each year at the hotels! Watch the video to learn more, or contact us here!

U.S. Mortgage Rates

Last week saw the lowest mortgage rates in the past 15 months. The difference in year-on-year mortgage payments (Sep 2023 vs Sep 2024) is about $300 a month or $3,600 a year, all things equal.

The current CHIPS Act is creating many jobs in the U.S., and this gentrification is driving home prices in the Midwest, where chip manufacturers are building their facilities - each responsible for well over 10,000 new jobs. We just met a couple buying homes in a midwest town where Google has their data centres and Intel is building a semiconductor fab - in this popular midwest town, home prices have doubled in the last few years. 

Many of these skilled labourers will need to rent, and this theme is consistent throughout the U.S. It's never been a better time to be a landlord in the U.S. 

Our Foreign National mortgage rates are very low, and you qualify ONLY on rental income, not your personal income; super easy.

Bridging Loans

Using your home equity for cash has been a useful way to generate liquidity when you need it! Our clients use this for tuition, renovations, paying down high-interest debt, or personal investments! We offer these loans in Singapore, the U.S., the U.K., and Australia!

Happy Hunting!

www.gmg.asia

Q&A: Hotel101, a New Investment Opportunity!

Catherine Chan, Chief Development Officer of Hotel101 Global Pte. Ltd., and Jane Wang, Director of Sales & Strategic Partnerships APAC, along with Donald Klip, Co-founder of Global Mortgage Group, provided valuable insights in this webinar, which highlights the exciting investment opportunities available through Hotel101. The session explored why investing in a hotel unit with Hotel101 is a compelling option and what sets this venture apart in the real estate market. For those who couldn’t attend, the recording is now accessible here.

During the session, Catherine Chan (CC), Jane Wang, and Donald Klip, addressed a variety of inquiries, offering informative responses to help investors make informed decisions about investing in Hotel101.

Remarks have been edited for clarity and brevity.

1. Could you tell me which countries will be next? When will we know?

CC: We have plans to be in 25 countries in the next few years. Specific details or timelines were not disclosed, but if anyone has potential projects or land, they are encouraged to come forward.

2. Can I reserve my own room, or is it always rented out?

CC: Yes, you can reserve your own room, but most owners don’t mind which specific room they get, as they are more focused on being able to use the hotel.

3. Can ownership be under a U.S. LLC, offshore company, or family trust? And can the revenue be sent anywhere globally?

CC: Ownership can be under a U.S. LLC, offshore company, or family trust. However, the speaker advises consulting a lawyer or accountant for tax implications.

4. Must the room be rented out? Is it possible to purchase it for personal use without renting it out at all? 

CC: The room doesn’t have to be rented out, but the cost is nearly double for personal use without renting.

5. How do you decide which units to rent out? Will we be informed? There is a possibility that we might end up with 15% of unoccupied units, right? What happens then?

CC: All units share revenue equally, regardless of how often they are rented. You can choose your unit, but it doesn't affect revenue share.

6. Are there different-sized units available for purchase, or are all units the same size?

CC: All units are standardized at 21 m².

7. Can I select units that are frequently booked, such as those with sea or mountain views?

CC: While you can choose your preferred unit, it doesn't affect revenue share.

8. What is the typical occupancy rate near Hotel101 Madrid?

CC: The occupancy rate is in the high seventies, with peaks up to 95% during events.

9. Does the 30% revenue share apply to room rent revenues only, or does it include hotel revenues like F&B as well?

CC: The revenue share is based only on room rental revenue, not F&B.

10. Can the unit owner sell the unit in the future? Are there any restrictions?

CC: Yes, you can sell the unit with no restrictions, but the company has the right of first refusal.

For more information, get in touch with us today!

www.gmg.asia

Global Property Investor – 10 U.S. Housing Markets Where Buyers Have the Most Leverage Right Now

We’ve just secured a new listing today—a perfect opportunity in Los Angeles! This new construction property boasts a cap rate exceeding 6.8% and includes a five-year master lease signed with the city. Located less than a mile from one of the largest hospitals in LA and the USC Health Sciences Campus, it offers substantial potential. If this is of interest to you or someone in your network, don’t miss out—reach out today!

USA

The latest report from Realtor.com identifies Lubbock, Texas, as the top U.S. housing market where buyers hold the most leverage. Despite fluctuating mortgage rates and rising prices, certain metro areas in the U.S. offer favorable conditions for buyers, particularly where inventory has surged, leading to longer time on the market and opportunities for negotiation. Nine out of the top ten markets are in Florida, with Punta Gorda ranking second, where buyers are benefiting from price corrections following the pandemic boom.

Source: 10 U.S. Housing Markets Where Buyers Have the Most Power Right Now

U.K.

The U.K. property market is showing signs of recovery, with the number of homes for sale reaching a seven-year high. This increase in inventory is coupled with rising demand, as a recovering economy boosts consumer confidence. Although prices in London have seen minimal growth, broader market conditions are improving, supported by easing borrowing costs and positive economic indicators. However, sellers are advised to remain cautious with pricing as buyers continue to be price-sensitive.

Source: U.K. Homes for Sale Hit Seven-Year High as Market Gains Momentum

Canada

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government frees up public lands to tackle the housing shortage by identifying 56 federal properties, equivalent to the size of 2,000 hockey rinks, for the development of affordable homes. These sites will be part of the Canada Public Land Bank, with some already available for long-term leasing in major cities like Toronto and Montreal. The initiative aims to build up to 3.9 million homes by 2031, potentially creating 250,000 new residential units. A C$500 million fund has also been established to acquire additional land. This move comes as Trudeau’s government faces declining poll numbers due to rising living costs.

Source: Canada Frees Up Public Lands to Tackle Housing Shortage

Australia

Australian home prices are projected to increase by over 6% nationally in 2024, driven by a persistent housing shortage and strong population growth. Despite the highest interest rates in 13 years, the housing market remains resilient, with prices having recouped losses from 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia's rate hikes have had little impact on the market, which saw significant growth in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane. However, this trend is making it increasingly difficult for first-time buyers, pushing more people towards renting, as home affordability continues to decline.

Source: Australian Home Prices Keep Rising as Supply Remains Tight

Dubai

Dubai’s real estate market is thriving, driven by an influx of wealthy investors from countries like Turkey and Egypt, who are seeking to protect their wealth amidst currency fluctuations. Binghatti Properties, a prominent developer, is planning to add 12,000 homes to the city over the next two years, capitalizing on the strong demand. Despite a slight moderation in price increases, the market continues to attract international buyers, particularly in high-end residential investments.

Source: Dubai Developer Says Rich Turks, Egyptians Helping Fuel Property Boom

Singapore

Singapore has ascended to 13th place in the Global Real Estate Transparency Index, reflecting its highly transparent market, now ranked second in Asia. The city-state’s advancements are attributed to its focus on sustainability and the integration of digital services within the real estate sector. This recognition is likely to bolster investor confidence and attract more international interest in Singapore’s property market.

Source: Singapore Climbs to 13th Place in Global Real Estate Transparency Index

America Mortgages Weekly

2024 Housing Market Showdown: What's Your Next Move?

As the 2024 election approaches, Trump's potential deregulation and tax cuts could boost U.S. real estate, while Harris might focus on affordable housing and stability, possibly slowing market growth. America Mortgages offers tailored loan solutions to help non-resident investors navigate these changes.

For more insights, visit: www.americamortgages.com

www.gmg.asia

GMG Investor: Big Rate Cuts, Hotel Deals + What’s Next from the Fed

Australia Mortgage Rates

Housekeeping - Watch our recent discussion on big cuts in our mortgage rates. Also, sign up for an interview I am hosting tomorrow with Hotel 101, an investment opportunity to own a hotel room in Niseko and Madrid. 

A cut in the Fed Funds rate is nearly 100% expected now, and the discussion is if the cut is 50 bps or, dare I say it, 75 bps.  

The main takeaway from my perspective of Powell's speech at Jackson Hole was the emphasis on unemployment vs inflation. His comments were very dovish.

The FOMC expects unemployment to be 4.0% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.

If we see the labor market soften below expectations (which we will) - the Fed will cut more aggressively post-September, given the lag effects.

According to Steno Research, forward pricing of the FOMC's rates is approaching a 3% equilibrium. That is to say, there are bets being placed for rates to be at 3% next year!   

Personally, I think we may see a 100-150 bps cut over the next 6 months - you heard it here first!

In China, the lack of credit growth is becoming a problem. Chinese are rational and are culturally savers. Watch this space.

Global Mortgage Group offers tailored lending solutions for your international investment goals. Don't miss out on global opportunities— contact us today for expert guidance.

www.gmg.asia

Global Property Investor – U.K. Property Market Surges Following Interest Rate Cut

USA

The U.S. existing home sales are declining due to rising mortgage rates and affordability issues. However, July 2024 saw a 1.3% sales increase, with the median price hitting a record $422,600. Inventory also increased to a 4.0-month supply, potentially giving buyers more leverage.

Source: Prices still at record levels as existing-home sales inch up

U.K.

The U.K. property market has experienced a significant upturn following a cut in interest rates. This response indicates strong underlying demand, particularly in areas that had previously seen sluggish activity. The rate cut has fuelled new energy into the market, with potential buyers rushing to capitalize on lower borrowing costs.

Source: Interest rate cut fuels immediate upturn in U.K. property market

Canada

Canadian buyers now lead in U.S. real estate purchases, making up 13% of international transactions, despite the slowest period in over 15 years. Economic challenges like high inflation, interest rates, and limited inventory have pushed more Canadians to pay in cash. Popular destinations include Florida, Arizona, and Hawaii, focusing on vacation and retirement properties. U.S. real estate remains attractive for Canadians seeking affordability and lifestyle benefits despite rising prices.

Source: History Suggests Stressful Times for the Canadian Housing Market

Australia

Australian homeowners have been benefiting significantly from the strong housing market, with new data showing that sellers are making substantial profits from property sales. The average gain from selling a house has been reported at $395,000, highlighting the lucrative opportunities present in the current market environment.

Source: Australians are making a median of $326,000 from selling their houses, new data finds

Dubai

Dubai's real estate market thrives amidst increasing business travel and an influx of wealthy migrants, driven by regional unrest. This prosperity is reflected in the city's booming property sector, with significant growth in high-end residential and commercial investments.

Source: Dubai's Prosperity Soars With Rising Business Travel And Wealth Migration Amid Regional Unrest

Singapore

In July 2024, Singapore's home sales rebounded as developers introduced more supply into the market. The increase in sales followed a sluggish period, with higher demand particularly noted for mass-market and luxury properties. This recovery is seen as a positive sign for the market, indicating renewed buyer interest and confidence, especially as developers continue to meet demand with new projects.

Source: Singapore Home Sales Recover in July with More Developer Supply

America Mortgages Weekly

As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, many are speculating on how a Kamala Harris victory could impact the U.S. housing market. Experts suggest that Harris's focus on affordable housing and economic equity might lead to more affordable housing projects and increased opportunities for first-time homeownership. However, the continuation ofhigher interest rates under her administration could temper market growth. Investors, particularly foreign nationals,should consider these potential shifts when planning their U.S. real estate investments.

For more insights, visit www.americamortgages.com

www.gmg.asia

Global Property Investor – Brisbane’s Property Market Poised for Growth in 2024

USA

The U.S. housing market is facing mixed signals as home prices continue to rise despite record-high mortgage rates. Areas like the Sunbelt are witnessing the most significant price increases, driven by strong demand and limited supply. While high rates might typically cool the market, in some regions, the opposite is happening.

Source: The U.S. housing market is on the verge of hitting a record $50 trillion valuation as prices keep rising

Canada

In Canada, July's home sales dipped by 0.7% from the previous month but remained above last year's levels. Increased inventory, up 22.7% from last year, has put downward pressure on prices, with the national average home price down 4% from June. Despite the slowdown, the market remains stable, with expectations for stronger activity later in the year as mortgage rates continue to decline.

Source: Canadian home sales hit “speed bump” in July, despite rate cuts

U.K.

In the U.K., house prices increased to £291,268 in July, marking a 0.8% rise from June—the largest monthly gain since January. Prices are now 2.3% higher compared to a year ago, reflecting recent drops in mortgage rates. Regionally, London recorded the slowest annual growth but the fastest monthly increase, with prices up 3.9% in July.

Source: UK House Prices See Biggest Jump Since January

Dubai

Dubai continues to set records in its real estate market, with more than 10,000 off-plan homes sold in July alone. This surge is driven by robust demand in the luxury segment, as both local and international investors seek to capitalize on Dubai's status as a prime investment destination. The ongoing boom highlights Dubai’s position as a global leader in luxury real estate.

Source: In a Record for Dubai, More Than 10,000 off-Plan Homes Sold in July

Australia

Brisbane’s property market is poised for further growth, with demand remaining strong despite broader economic challenges. Factors such as population growth, infrastructure development, and limited housing supply are expected to drive prices higher, particularly in well-located areas. Investors may find Brisbane an attractive option for both short-term gains and long-term stability.

Source: Brisbane’s property market forecast for 2024

Singapore

Singapore's property market is seeing strong growth, with residential prices up over 3% this year, driven by local and foreign demand. The luxury market is particularly active, with new high-end projects attracting attention. Commercial real estate is also recovering, though experts warn of potential risks from global economic shifts. Low mortgage rates and government policies continue to support market stability.

Source: Singapore's Property Market Thrives Amidst Global Challenges

America Mortgages Weekly

With the 2024 presidential election approaching, speculation is high on how a Trump win might influence the U.S. housing market. Experts predict that Trump’s focus on deregulation and tax cuts could boost real estate investments, potentially leading to a surge in refinancing and home sales. However, there are concerns about higher inflation and interest rates. Investors, especially foreign nationals, should be mindful of these factors when considering U.S. real estate opportunities under a possible Trump administration.

Stay tuned next week as we explore how a potential Kamala Harris victory could shape the housing market.

For more insights, visit www.americamortgages.com

www.gmg.asia