What just happened? + How to bet alongside Blackstone!

Bridge Loan Mortgage

What a year it’s been and the resiliency of asset markets in the face of everything that was thrown at it was truly amazing!   

We are living through unprecedented times with technology and crypto experiencing another bull market, U.S. elections in 2024, and potential rate cuts around the world. Could we be “back to the races” again this year?

One exercise that we all do at the beginning of the year is to adjust our personal investment portfolio to reflect what we expect to unfold in the world over the short, medium, and long term.

For many, including myself, that means increasing the allocation to crypto and U.S. real estate investments.

The simple key to making long-term money is to create a portfolio of non-correlated investments, and there is no better time to increase your U.S. real estate investment exposure.

Our goal in 2024 is to bring more education, experience, and strategies to our client's real estate investing.

We are living through unprecedented times, and we want to be there for you on your journey as an international real estate investor.

Message me if you want to know what I recommend as your real estate exposure vs. your overall portfolio.

U.S. Real Estate Market - What Just Happened?!

In a year that saw:

  • 10-year Treasury yields at 5%
  • 30-year mortgage rates at 7-8%
  • Inflation as high as 6.5% 

How did:

  • Home prices rise across the country; in some metro areas 10-15%
  • S&P +25%; Nasdaq +55%

How did everyone get it wrong?  

In hindsight, it is clear to me that the extent of the positive impact of various layers of government stimulus going back to COVID (including the Fed’s BTFP) was severely misunderstood and underappreciated.  

Now, with inflation and employment (Fed’s dual mandate) seemingly under control, most of the world now expects around a 75 bps cut in Fed Funds rates (echoed by the Fed’s new dot plot).  

Hat’s off to our GMG Research team, which mid-2022 called for a supportive U.S. property market in 2023, but never did we expect a rising market to this extent.   

Our thesis was simple - it was based on the fact that: 

  • 24% of homeowners have their mortgages < 3%
  • 63% are locked-in < 4% and 
  • 83% of homeowners have mortgages < 5%
  • Severe lack of supply 

Existing Homes

In any marketplace, you need supply and demand. For U.S. real estate, the supply is Existing Homes and New Homes. Existing Home Sales are about 90% of Total Home Sales in the U.S.

Given that 83% of existing homeowners have a mortgage < 5%, they would have to be under financial stress to sell, given their new mortgage would cost 7-8%. As you can imagine, Existing Home Sales is at a 13-year low!    

New Homes

It’s widely known that there is a major shortage of homes in the U.S.; between 3-6M units, depending on what you read.

Lack of Homebuilder Motivation

With higher borrowing costs, higher commodity prices, and higher wages - there is no financial motivation for homebuilders to increase their development, given the lower margin potential from higher costs.  

More importantly, demand and affordability will be dampened by higher-for-longer mortgage rates. 

Remember, the large homebuilders are all publicly traded companies with CEOs compensated on share price performance. 

Higher profit => Higher EPS => Lower PE => Institutional Buying => Higher share prices => Higher CEO bonuses!

Sun Belt is Rising!

Elsewhere, the national reshoring of manufacturing is happening; it's happening now, and it's happening fast!

States like Georgia, Texas, and Florida are experiencing an unprecedented influx of employment seekers to match the growing opportunities.

Between January 2020 and January 2023, rents for a two-bed detached home increased about 44% in Tampa, Florida, 43% in Phoenix, and 35% near Atlanta. 

Why is this important for you (international property investor)?

Many Americans will not be able to afford a mortgage even if rates fall to 5-6%, so they will have to rent.

In the states mentioned above, we are seeing gross rental yields of 12% already!

I have no doubt that rental yields in these states will be 15% sooner than we think.  

You know who else knows this?

Wall Street, aka Private Equity (aka Blackstone and its pals)

Single-family homes are the next big institutional investment opportunity given its sheer scale and for the reasons I mentioned above.  

There have been many articles published this year about how institutions may own up to 40-60% of single-family home supply by 2030!

Hear Bobby Kennedy Jr’s speech on this

As an investment banker for over 20 years with Blackstone as its client, I can assure you if there is money to be made, they are going to make it!

The Perfect Storm to Invest in U.S. Real Estate

  • Extremely supportive supply demand
  • Low-entry price point
  • Ease of transaction
  • High leverage (even for foreign nationals living overseas)
  • Tailwind of institutional buying and 
  • Plenty of ways to maximize cash flow (lower tax)

Home prices will certainly go higher, given the expectation of lower rates in 2024!

If you are interested in taking your first step in owning a U.S. real estate investment property, send me a private message, and I can walk you through the entire process:

  • How to find the right city to invest in
  • Which cities have the highest rental yield
  • Setting up an LLC and bank account
  • U.S. tax specialist specializing in international investors
  • Property manager
  • Realtor….and, of course,
  • Financing for foreign nationals or expats living overseas

2023 In Review

Bank stuff…

Silicon Valley Bank was put into receivership after it failed to raise needed capital. SVB’s closure was the largest bank failure in U.S. history since the 2008 financial crisis. This led to the collapse of cryptocurrency-focused Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank as well.

The implosion of these three small-to-mid-sized U.S. banks ignited contagion fears across the globe in the months that followed, prompting the Federal Reserve to set up a US$12B emergency lending program - known as the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). More on this later.  

The programme couldn’t save First Republic Bank from closing down and was ultimately sold to JPMorgan Chase. 

This was just an amuse-bouche for what happened next as Credit Suisse collapsed with UBS paying only CHF 3B to save the company, a deal brokered by the Swiss government. Google “AT1 bonds,” and the story gets even crazier. 

Crypto stuff…

  • January - BTC $16,000; ETH $1606; SOL $9.9
  • February - Kraken shuts down
  • March - SVB collapses; Arbitum launches ARB token
  • April - ARK refiles Bitcoin ETF
  • May - DOJ investigation on Binance for Russia sanctions
  • June - SEC sues Binance CEO; Blackrock files for spot Bitcoin ETF; Fidelity, Wisdom Tree, VanEck refiles Bitcoin ETV
  • July - Blackrock CEO says BTC “could revolutionize finance”; Ripple won ruling
  • August - Paypal launches stablecoin, Grayscale wins lawsuit with SEC, 
  • September - Nomura launches Bitcoin fund
  • October - 1st ETH futures ETF launched
  • November - SBF found guilty; Blackrock files for spot Ethereum ETF; Binance settles lawsuit and CEO steps down
  • December - BTC $40,000; ETH $2,396; SOL $105 

Bad actors were removed, Binance settled, Ripple won, Bitcoin spot ETF (only a matter of time), and MicroStrategy bought $600M of BTC at $42K last night!

AI stuff…

It’s mind-boggling that ChatGPT reached 100 million users in just 2 months after launch. Just guessing here, but it must be the fastest adoption of any form of technology, language, or service in the history of humankind. The scary thing is that it’s only getting started. It’s now a necessary tool for nearly all organizations (ChatGPT is writing this now…just kidding).

An event prescient of things to come was the Hollywood strike, which, at the core, was about protecting Hollywood jobs from AI. The delay of Dune 2 till March 2024 was the biggest disappointment to me personally. 

Nvidia, the only company that is able to make chips capable of crunching AI’s large language models, saw its stock +200%. The rest of the tech incumbents went along for the ride: Meta +250%, Tesla +100%, Google, and Microsoft, both +50%+. 

Fun stuff….

  • Taylor Swift’s x ERAs tour is generating more GDP than many small countries. I’m a massive Swiftie, so bummed I couldn't get tickets.
  • Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce
  • Barbie x Oppenheimer
  • Coronation of King Charles III and Camilla

Sad stuff…

  • Hamas and Israel
  • Hawaii forest fires
  • Titan x Titanic
  • Matthew Perry, Tina Turner, Sinead O’Conner

Crazy stuff…

  • Twitter rebrands to X
  • George Santos gets expelled from the House of Representatives
  • Kevin McCarthy gets ousted as Speaker of the House
  • Torrential rain flooded Burning Man (I was supposed to go)
  • The Cricket World Cup breaches 1 trillion viewing minutes globally
  • Watching Harvard and UPenn botch their response to the ME events
  • Ozempic, a diabetes drug popular with Hollywood actors to lose weight, became mainstream to the point its manufacturer, Novo Nordisc, was the largest market cap stock in Europe, larger than LVMH!
  • Even crazier, General Mills had to research the impact Ozempic had on their business, given the potential lack of calorie consumption.

Sports stuff…

  • Messi-mania goes nuclear in Miami
  • Inter Miami is the most searched sports team on Google
  • Lebron surpassing Kareem in most points scored
  • South Africa wins the Rugby World Cup
  • Australia wins the Cricket World Cup

Update of our Global Financing Capabilities

  • International Residential Mortgages
    U.S.,  Canada,  Mexico,  U.K.,  France,  Spain,  Portugal,  Italy,  Dubai,  Singapore,  Japan,  Thailand,  Australia
  • International Asset-backed (Bridging) Loans
    U.S.,  Canada,  U.K.,  Singapore,  Thailand,  Philippines,  Australia
  • Asian Real Estate Structured Debt Financing
    Most of Asia
  • Listed Share Financing
    Most of Asia and the U.K.

I want to thank all our stakeholders for joining us on our journey to disrupt how international investors secure financing for global real estate investments.  

We wish you abundant health, wealth, and happiness in 2024!

Happy Hunting!

[email protected]

40-Year High

International Mortgage Broker UK

Between 2022-2023, the U.S. hosted over 1,000,000 international students, +12% from the previous year, the fastest growth rate in more than 40 years! (The Open Doors® 2023 Report on International Educational Exchange, Nov 13)

Let me repeat this…

The U.S. saw a 40-year high growth rate in international students attending U.S. universities between 2022-2023!

What was also interesting was Singapore (our headquarters) and India saw record numbers of students attending U.S. colleges. 

Did you know…

We created the world’s first U.S. mortgage, which allows your child to be the tenant, AM Student+.

Education

From our client surveys, Education was given as a key reason for their U.S. real estate investments. 

Most of the time, the objective of owning real estate to earn income almost always comes down to "could I live there one day"? 

A popular strategy for our clients is to purchase an investment property "in anticipation” of sending their child to college, set up a base in that city, and earn rental income along the way.  

Then upon college acceptance, the parents can live in the property when visiting and rent it out when it's not in use. 

Upon graduation, the price appreciation may even pay for college if they decide to sell. 

Another popular option, if the child stays in the U.S. for work, is to transfer the property to the child's name as a "graduation gift" to help build up their credit profile and/or earn rental income. Why high schools? 

Here are the following “Education-related” reports - there is plenty of good information here - including the best Public and Private high schools in California, Texas, Florida, and New York:

1. Top U.S. High Schools Property Investment Guide eBook

2. Buyers Guide to California - Education drives prices and rents

3. Buyers Guide to California - Demographics

Here is a list of our partners that can help with your U.S. real estate investment decision:

If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to me directly at [email protected] or my personal mobile +65 9773-0273

www.gmg.asia

[Report] 2023 Foreign Buyers of U.S. Real Estate

France Mortgages

Considered the “bible” for foreign investor trends in U.S. residential real estate, the 2023 National Association of Realtor’s report on Foreign Investments has just been released, and the results are eye-opening!  

This is why we got into this business in 2017!  

Problem: Foreign Investors found it difficult to securing financing for their U.S. real estate investments. 

That is when we started on our journey to fix this!  

Watch our DemoDay Presentation! 

Before we start... 

 If I told you that in a year that saw: 

  • Interest rates rising globally (in the U.S., rates tripled!) 
  •  Russian-Ukraine conflict 
  •  Other Geo-political concerns 
  •  Inflation concerns 
  •  Supply chain issues stemming from Covid-19  

And I said U.S. real estate purchased by foreigners was ONLY 10% LESS THAN the previous year. 

Would you believe me? 

Of course not! 

Frankly, this report surprised me but states the resilience of the U.S. real estate market, especially with foreign investors and overseas investors.  

If you have any questions about this report or anything real estate financing-related, please feel free to reach out to me directly at [email protected] or my personal mobile +65 9773-0273. 

Sincerely, 

Donald Klip, Co-Founder 

Global Mortgage Group

Before we begin, I want to thank our summer intern, Angelina Hong, who is currently reading the Classics at the University of Oxford in the UK and the author of this report and many of our previous articles. We wish her the best in her future endeavours! 

International Buyers of U.S. Real Estate: 2023 Highlights 

In the ever-evolving landscape of global real estate investment, the United States remains a sought-after destination for international buyers. The year 2023 has brought about significant changes and trends in the international real estate market, with foreign buyers continuing to play a vital role. This article explores the statistics and key factors driving the international buyers of U.S. real estate in 2023.

Key Statistics (April 2022-March 2023): 

$53.3 billion of foreign buyer purchases 

84,600 foreign buyer existing-home purchases 

Average foreign buyer purchase price rose to $639,900 

Top foreign buyer: China 

Top destination: Florida 

Part I: Strong U.S. Housing Demand, Tight Supply, Soaring Home Prices 

The United States housing market has experienced its own set of dynamics. In 2021, it witnessed the highest levels of home sales since 2006. However, 2022 saw a slowdown and normalisation of the market due to various factors. In response to inflationary pressures, mortgage rates were raised, which impacted housing demand. 

As of the end of March 2023, the housing market faced challenges related to supply. Unsold homes were 4% above levels seen one year prior. The median price of existing homes also hit a notable milestone, reaching $375,700 in April 2023.  

Part II: International Buyers 

Purchases of Existing Homes 

The 2023 statistics reveal a shift in the international buyer landscape. The number of existing homes purchased by foreign buyers decreased to 84,600, marking the lowest figure since 2009. This decline represents a 14% drop from the previous year, with 14,000 fewer foreign buyers participating in the market. 

The dollar volume of foreign buyer purchases also decreased by 9.6% to $53.3 billion, reflecting the impact of market dynamics. 

READ – still $53 billion of demand, despite the issues mentioned above!

Origin and Destination 

The origin of international buyers continues to diversify. Asian buyers maintain their dominance, representing the largest group with a market share of 38%. Latin American buyers follow closely behind, accounting for 31% of the market. European and Canadian buyers hold 14% and 10% of the market share, respectively. 

China remains the top country of origin for international buyers, representing 13% of the market. Chinese buyers stand out with the highest average purchase price at $1.2 million, often investing in expensive states such as California and New York. In contrast, Mexican buyers tend to purchase less expensive properties, with Texas being a preferred destination. 

The top 10 countries of origin of international buyers:  

1. China
2. Mexico
3. Canada
4. India
5. Colombia
6. United Kingdom
7. Australia
8. Germany
9. Venezuela
10. Israel

In terms of destinations within the United States, Florida remains the top choice for international buyers, with a significant 23% share of the market. California and Texas closely follow, each with a 12% share.  

The top 10 states for international buyers:  

1. Florida
2. California
3. Texas
4. North Carolina
5. Arizona
6. Illinois
7. New York
8. Ohio
9. Pennsylvania
10. New Jersey

Financing 

Foreign buyers continue to exhibit a propensity for all-cash purchases, with 42% choosing this payment method, compared to 26% among all buyers of existing homes. Those foreign buyers residing abroad are more likely to make all-cash purchases. 

Property as a Real Estate Investment  

Foreign purchases of U.S. real estate saw 6% increase from the previous year, indicating a growing interest in real estate investment for various purposes. 

READ: Year-on-year INCREASE in property purchased for investment purposes!!!

The majority of foreign buyers prefer detached single-family homes, with 76% making such purchases. Additionally, foreign buyers tend to gravitate towards suburban areas, with 45% choosing this type of location. Interestingly, more than three-quarters of Asian Indian buyers opt for suburban properties. Conversely, Canadian buyers are more likely to purchase properties in resort areas for use as vacation homes. 

Part III: Reasons for Not Purchasing U.S. Property 

Despite the allure of U.S. real estate, some international clients cite their perception of hurdles for investing in this sector. 

Here are the common misconceptions, the actual facts and our solutions: 

Cost of properties  Not at all. See the following chart on price comparisons to global cities  
Difficulties in finding suitable properties      This can be an issue with time zones, which sites to look at etc. We have fixed this – AM Property Finder. 
Immigration Laws  As a foreign real estate investor, there are NO restrictions!   
Challenges in obtaining financing      This is all we do. Check out our Foreign National loan programs. 
Property taxes      You earn income, you need to pay taxes; however, there are many ways to deduct expenses to maximise your rental income
Exposure to U.S. tax laws      The reality of U.S. taxes is MUCH EASIER than perception. Some states, like Texas, don’t have state taxes, which is why it’s one of the most popular investment destinations. Also, there are many ways to deduct expenses to maximise your rental income
Maintenance fees      Any real estate investment will have maintenance required, but that is why you pay a small fee to the property manager. AM Concierge service can introduce you to our preferred managers to make your investment seamless and hassle-free.   
Currency transfer difficulties      No issues here. AM Concierge service has partner remittance firms that help our clients. Even in China we have viable solutions from our partners.   
Insurance  Insurance is a small percentage of the rental income you receive, and we have partners to help you with this.   
Exchange rate concerns  If you are funding the mortgage payments in your home currency, you may experience a currency loss, BUT you can easily hedge this, PLUS you will be earning USD rental income.   

America Mortgages Concierge Services: 

  •  Property Finder 
  •  Property Management 
  •  International Remittance Solutions (including China) 
  •  Property Taxes 
  •  Tax Advice and Filing 
  •  LLC company set up 
  •  Immigration Consultants 

In conclusion, the 2023 statistics on international buyers of U.S. real estate demonstrate a changing landscape influenced by global economic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and evolving buyer preferences. While challenges persist, the U.S. remains an attractive destination for international real estate investment, drawing buyers from diverse backgrounds and motivations. 

Contact us at [email protected] and seize opportunities in the thriving U.S. property market. Visit www.gmg.asia for more information.

France – Not Only for Tourists, But for Real Estate Investors

Residential Mortgages UK

France has always been a popular tourist destination, but in recent years it has also become a hot spot for property investors. With its rich cultural heritage, beautiful landscapes, and world-renowned cuisine, France offers a lot of potential for those looking to invest in property. In this article, we will explore the benefits of investing in property in France and the GMG mortgage options available for investors.

Rental Income Potential

One of the main benefits of investing in property in France is its strong rental market. There is a high demand for rental properties, particularly in popular tourist destinations like Paris, Cannes, and Nice. According to SeLoger, the rental yield for apartments in Paris ranges from 3.2% to 4.2%, which is considered high compared to other major cities such as New York and London. In Cannes and Nice, rental yields can range from 3.5% to 5%, depending on factors such as location, property type, and seasonality. Additionally, the French government has implemented policies to support the rental market, such as tax incentives and subsidies for landlords.

Price Appreciation Outlook

Another advantage of investing in property in France is its potential for price appreciation. While property prices in some parts of France are already high, there are still many areas that offer more affordable options for investors. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, property prices in France have been increasing steadily since 2015, with a 3.9% increase in 2021 and a 3.8% increase in 2022. In Cannes and Nice, property prices have increased by an average of 4-5% per year over the past decade, according to French Property. Additionally, the French government has implemented policies to encourage foreign investment in the real estate market, such as offering tax incentives for long-term investors.

Low Cost of Living

France is known for its high standard of living, but it also has a relatively low cost of living compared to other developed countries. This can make it an attractive option for investors who want to keep their expenses low while they are managing their properties.

Mortgage Options for International Investors

GMG offers a range of mortgage options for international investors looking to invest in property in France. With a team of experienced mortgage advisors, GMG can help investors find the right mortgage for their needs. GMG offers both fixed and variable rate mortgages, and investors can choose from a range of repayment terms.

In addition to mortgage options, GMG also offers a range of other services to help investors navigate the French property market. This includes legal and tax advice, property management services, and assistance with the purchase process.

Overall, France offers a lot of potential for property investors looking for a stable market with strong rental demand and the potential for price appreciation. Paris, Cannes, and Nice, in particular, offer investors the opportunity to invest in growing tourist destinations with world-class attractions and stunning natural beauty. With GMG's mortgage options and other services, investors can navigate the French property market with confidence.

Get in touch with us to learn more about investing in France, properties available to purchase through our partners and about GMG's financing solutions for foreign national investors today at [email protected].

5 Reasons to Invest in Japanese Real Estate

International Mortgage

5 Reasons why Japan Real Estate Is a Good Investment 

In recent years, Japan has become an attractive destination for property investors due to its stable economy, low crime rates, and high standard of living. With its rich cultural heritage, stunning landscapes, and bustling cities, Japan offers a lot of potential for those looking to invest in property. In this article, we will explore the benefits of investing in property in Japan and of course GMG mortgage options available for investors. 

1. Surprisingly High Rental Income Potential 

One of the main benefits of investing in property in Japan is its strong rental market. There is a high demand for rental properties, particularly in popular tourist destinations like Niseko. According to Japan Property Central, the rental yield for apartments in central Tokyo ranges from 4-5%, which is considered high compared to other major cities such as New York and London. In Niseko, rental yields can range from 4-8%, depending on factors such as location, property type, and seasonality. Additionally, the Japanese government has implemented policies to support the rental market, such as tax incentives and subsidies for landlords.

2. Price Appreciation Outlook

Another advantage of investing in property in Japan is its potential for price appreciation. While property prices in some parts of Japan are already high, there are still many areas that offer more affordable options for investors. According to the Japan Real Estate Institute, property prices in Japan have been increasing steadily since 2013, with a 2.7% increase in 2021 and a 2.9% increase in 2022. In Niseko, property prices have increased by an average of 3-4% per year over the past decade, according to Niseko Property. Additionally, the Japanese government has implemented policies to encourage foreign investment in the real estate market, such as relaxing visa requirements and offering tax incentives for long-term investors.

3. Low Cost of Living 

Japan has a reputation for being an expensive country, but it also has a low cost of living compared to other developed countries. This can make it an attractive option for investors who want to keep their expenses low while they are managing their properties. 

4. Mortgage Options for International Investors 

GMG offers a range of mortgage options for international investors looking to invest in property in Japan. With a team of experienced mortgage advisors, GMG can help investors find the right mortgage for their needs. GMG offers both fixed and variable rate mortgages, and investors can choose from a range of repayment terms. 

In addition to mortgage options, GMG also offers a range of other services to help investors navigate the Japanese property market. This includes legal and tax advice, property management services, and assistance with the purchase process. 

Overall, Japan offers a lot of potential for property investors looking for a stable market with strong rental demand and the potential for price appreciation. Niseko, in particular, offers investors the opportunity to invest in a growing tourist destination with world-class skiing and stunning natural beauty. With GMG's mortgage options and other services, investors can navigate the Japanese property market with confidence.

5. GMG Concierge Program

We have a large list of exclusive secondary properties in Tokyo and Yokohama with very good return profiles which can be shared with you upon request.

Meanwhile we have extensive relationships with real estate developers with new projects which we can show as well in Niseko, Tokyo and Kyoto.  

Get in touch with us to learn more about access to our property portfolio as well our Japan mortgage options for foreign national investors at [email protected]

5 Reasons Why U.S. Housing Prices will not Crash but Surprise us!

International Mortgages

1. Lack of investment by homebuilders

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, fewer homes were built in the U.S. in the 10 years following the 2008 financial crisis than in any decade since the 1960s.

From 2010 to 2019, a total of 6.8 million new privately-owned housing units were completed in the U.S., significantly lower than the 9.7 million units completed in the 2000s and the 8.6 million units completed in the 1990s.

A major reason for the drop in new housing construction following the 2008 financial crisis was partly due to the housing market crash, which led to a decline in demand for new homes and tighter lending standards (Dodd-Frank).

2. Higher input costs

Additionally, builders faced various challenges during this period, including higher land and labor costs, regulatory hurdles, and a shortage of skilled workers for construction.

These issues are only more pronounced now with higher wages, higher input prices such as lumber, concrete, etc., and of course, financing costs as of last year!

3. Massive lack of housing supply to meet demand

Last year, Freddie Mac published an article, “Housing Supply: A Growing Deficit,” noting as of the fourth quarter of 2020, the U.S. had a housing supply deficit of 3.8 million units.”

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors projects that the housing deficit is closer to 6.8 million homes.

Lastly, a report published by the Fed last year, “Volatility in Home Sales and Prices: Supply or Demand?” find that a 30% increase in the monthly number of homes coming onto the market would have been necessary to keep up with the pandemic-era surge in demand​.

4. TikTokers need more space at home

However, there is a new dynamic that has arisen over the past 3 years, which is how labor is defined and its impact on housing. Many workers are now choosing to work from home, and also, the younger entrants into the labor force are now earning income from alternative methods, all requiring some “extra space” at home and not an office to go to (TikTok, Amazon sales, Crypto trading, etc.) – this is all very supportive of housing demand.

5. Stability

The stability of the U.S. housing market cannot be underestimated. Post-COVID, when mortgage rates were lowered to historically low levels, most homeowners took the opportunity to refinance their homes to take advantage of the interest rate savings. Fast forward to today, 50% of all mortgages outstanding are under 4%, fixed for 30 years​; 40% of all homes are owned free and clear, and nearly 100% of all borrowers have mortgages lower than the current rate!

Will we see a crash? NO!

We feel given the structure of the supply-demand landscape, there is no impending crash, but we feel the market will be supported faster than expected.

In summary, whether you say we are 4M units short, 6M units short, or 30% short – we are short, making this a great opportunity to start building your U.S. rental portfolio, given rental income and yields will continue to rise.

5 reasons why Texas is a GREAT state for property investment

Global Mortgage Group

Note: From March 14-19, we will be showcasing single-family homes near Dallas, Texas, for sale. Starting at $390,000, these are great starter homes for those looking to build their investment portfolio. They are even more attractive when you take advantage of our 75% financing and property management services. Click here to sign up or learn more.

In the report, we want to highlight why Texas is an attractive state to own an investment property in. 

Many know Texas as the home to many famous sports teams and a popular 80s soap opera.

However, it's also the state that has been the most gentrified over the past few years and will continue to, in our opinion. Texas has an underappreciated diverse, and robust economy, with numerous industries, including oil and gas, technology, healthcare, and manufacturing. This has resulted in job growth and a steady influx of new residents, which drives housing demand.

Let's start with our 5 reasons to own investment property in Texas

1. Strong Economic Growth: 

Over the past decade, Texas has also consistently ranked among the fastest-growing states in the U.S., driven by a number of factors, including a business-friendly environment, a growing population, and a diversified economy – all positive factors contributing to a strong real estate market. 

Texas has outperformed the national average in terms of GDP growth.  

Insight: The Bureau of Economic Analysis, as of 3Q2022:

Real GDP growth rate for Texas was 8.7% vs. the national average of 3.2%. 

Personal Income growth +6.9% vs. national average +5.3%! 

People in Texas are seeing their wages grow more, and their companies are growing faster than the rest of the nation by a long shot!

2. Affordability:

Compared to other major U.S. cities, Texas cities like Houston, Dallas, and Austin are generally more affordable in terms of housing costs, which can make them attractive to investors looking to get more for their money.

Texas has a lower cost of living than the national average, which can make it an attractive destination for people looking for a more affordable place to live. 

Insight: According to data from the Council for Community and Economic Research, as of March 2023, the cost of living in Texas was approximately 8% lower than the national average.

Mostly from housing, 15% lower, Food, 9% lower, Transportation, 7% and Healthcare, 4% lower than the national average. 

Housing costs, in particular, tend to be more affordable in Texas compared to many other parts of the country, which can be an important consideration for people looking to buy a home or rent an apartment.

3. Business-Friendly Environment: 

Texas is known for its business-friendly environment, with low taxes, a favourable regulatory climate, and a pro-growth mindset which now leads the nation in the number of Fortune 500 companies that have made the state their headquarters.

In just 2021 alone, 62 companies relocated their HQs to Texas from 17 other states and 3 countries, with Tesla being the most notable.

This steady stream of businesses and corporations relocating to the state brings with them jobs and new residents.

There is no individual income tax in Texas and no corporate income tax. State sales tax of 6.25% is also lower than the national average of 8.20%.

4. Landlord-Friendly State:

Texas is known for its strong protection of property rights, which can be attractive to landlords. 

Quick eviction: Landlords have a legal right to evict tenants who fail to pay rent or violate the lease terms with a quick eviction process compared to other states, which can be helpful to landlords who need to regain possession of their property quickly.

Limited tenant protections: Compared to other states, Texas has relatively few laws protecting tenants' rights. For example, there is no limit on security deposits, and tenants have limited legal recourse if their landlord fails to make necessary repairs.

Freedom to set rent: Landlords in Texas have the freedom to set their own rent prices without being subject to rent control or other restrictions.

5. Strong Rental Market: 

Texas cities have strong rental markets, with demand driven by a combination of population growth, job growth, and a relatively high number of renters compared to homeowners. 

This can make investing in rental properties in Texas a lucrative option.

Insight: According to data from Zillow as of February 2023, the median rent in Texas increased by 5.8% over the past year and will continue to increase to 8.4% as of May 2023, according to the Dallas Fed report. 

I hope this report helps shed some light on why Texas has been and will continue to be one of the most popular states to own an investment property in.  

As we mentioned at the beginning of this report, we are bringing brand-new single-family homes in Dallas, Texas, through Asia from March 14-19. If you want to learn more, please click this link and register.

How will Singapore’s & Hong Kong’s property markets develop in 2023, & what other factors will determine the two cities’ appeal as financial hubs?

Global Mortgage Group

Singapore and Hong Kong’s property market will do well in 2023 for similar as well as different reasons.  

For Hong Kong, a place where my family is originally from and where I spent over 20 years of my career, I feel like the market is coming from a low base of price, sentiment, and liquidity as a result of many reasons that we all know about. 

I think a small uptick in sentiment will get local buyers to become active again, and the political overhang during COVID seems to have been lifted with the new pro-active administration.  

At the end of the day, Hong Kong’s competitive strengths is from its long history of promoting free trade and open markets. Capital markets will pick up, foreign companies and executives will move back, providing support for the overall property sector. 

Singapore’s reputation has benefitted greatly from having a systematic approach to dealing with COVID. 

Its pragmatic and meritocratic approach to running the country is its core strength, and the world is taking notice. 

It’s no secret how well Singapore has created an environment for top overseas talent and families to be attracted to safety, ease of travel, good schools, true multi-cultural society, attractive living options, and great food! 

With recent programs to attract top foreign talent and family offices, the top end of the real estate market has been very hot, with new record prices being mentioned almost every day. This will continue to support the real estate market, and now with the countries all opening up, prices will continue to remain strong as affluent families look for options to move here – company setups, employment, education, and at the very high-end, setting up family offices.   

Prices for high-end residential homes in Singapore are around $3,000 psf which is really what Hong Kong was in the late-90s, so there is a considerable amount of upside for Singapore real estate if that is how you want to look at the 2 markets. 

My personal opinion is the competition portrayed often by media between Hong Kong, and Singapore is unwarranted. Once all countries in Asia open up in earnest, Hong Kong and Singapore will be connected more so than ever and will part of one ecosystem with China, in my opinion. 

The custodial and wealth management business will continue to move to Singapore, and families will move here and take advantage of the strong school systems and safe environment to raise a family. 

Meanwhile, Hong Kong will still be the centre for capital markets. The biggest market cap companies in Asia ex-Japan are Chinese companies, and naturally, they will be listed in Hong Kong given that the HKD is a freely traded currency as China’s capital account is still closed, all things equal. However, Singapore is at the cutting edge of many industries like healthcare and medical research, blockchain, education, and much more. 

For more information, get in touch with us at [email protected]

USA #1 Destination, Says Knight Frank APAC Outlook 2023

Bridging Loan Canada

In our first article of the year, we want to reference the recently-published “Knight Frank’s APAC Real Estate Outlook 2023”.

This report is particularly relevant given that their target audience and readers of UHNWI, HNW, and Global Family Offices are the same as ours. We work with private banks, client advisors, external asset managers, real estate agencies, and family offices all around the globe as their real estate financing and property-sourcing partner.

KNIGHT FRANK APAC REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK 2023 SAYS --> U.S.A. #1!

One glaring takeaway from the Knight Frank report is that out of the Top 10 Locations for a 2nd Residence for Asian and/or UHNW buyers, U.S.A. is their top choice! 

Here is the list in order of preference:

1 – U.S.A.!!!!

2 – Australia

3 – New Zealand

4 – United Kingdom

5 – Singapore

6 – South Korea

7 – Taiwan

8 – Japan

9 – Indonesia

10 – France

PEOPLE ARE FINALLY NOTICING WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SAYING -> U.S.A.! 

While we have been way ahead of this thesis, having been on our journey the past 5 years promoting the benefits of owning U.S. real estate, what we find interesting is that: 1) global real estate behemoths like Knight Frank are promoting U.S. Real Estate and 2) the Asian and UHNW clientele have chosen U.S.A. as their favourite destination for owning a second home.

WHY INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS ARE FAVOURING THE U.S.A. vs. R.O.W.? 

Over the past 12-24 months, what has been clear to us from conversations with our clients, in the eyes of an international investor is that:

1) real estate is finally an inflation hedge, 2) the U.S. is a safe haven, especially for real estate, 3) having more USD exposure has economic benefits, 4). while they may not want to live there permanently; having a base in the U.S. has benefits (U.S. Family Office, U.S. Trust, etc.), 5) the age of children who were born during the start of the latest economic boom (say around the time China entered the W.T.O. in 2001) are now entering high school/university. The U.S. still has the best for both globally, 6) the U.S. tax regime is not as complicated as perceived, 7) they would appreciate help finding the property, advising on tax and corporate holding structure, and arranging a property management company.

KNIGHT FRANK’S REPORT ECHOES WHAT OUR CLIENTS ARE SAYING TOO! 

In their report, the top 3 themes influencing investment strategy are 1) mitigating higher inflation (69%), 2) income security (67%), and 3) focusing on safe haven markets (55%).

While this is consistent with what our clients tell us, Education is also an important theme. This is assumed given Education is what drives price appreciation, which in turn creates a safe haven market.

GMG HIGH-NET-WORTH REAL ESTATE ADVISORY

We launched this in 2022, and we have grown our capabilities due to demand from our end-clients and global partners, private banks, family offices, external asset managers, and client advisors.

Residential Real Estate Financing: U.S.A., Mexico, Canada, U.K., France, Spain, Portugal, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Philippines, Japan, Australia

Global Bridging Loans: U.S.A., Canada, U.K., Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, and Philippines.

Asia Institutional Structured Real Estate Debt Financing: US$50M minimum (<$50M case-by-case basis), Construction, Development, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, and Australia.

Global Property Sourcing*: U.S.A., Canada, U.K., Spain, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, and Japan. 

Global Property Extended Services*: Expat and/or Foreign National Tax and Holding company advice, Property, and Personal insurance.

Other Financing Solutions: Share financing, Crypto financing (case-by-case), and Luxury watch financing.

*Introductions to carefully-selected partners to include by not limited to developers, real estate agents, lawyers, and accountants. 

THE GMG STORY

Founded in 2019 by Donald Klip and Robert Chadwick to provide solutions to international clients looking to secure real estate financing in countries where they are not residents, typically for investment purposes or a second home. We have now grown to a team of 25, spread across the world, offering financing solutions to every major country in the world with over 300 lending relationships globally. 

Reference: Knight Frank APAC Outlook 2023 Report